U.S. Cattle Herd Recovery Slips to 2028-2029 as Beef Hits $9.64 a Pound
Updated
Updated · Fox Business · Jun 11
U.S. Cattle Herd Recovery Slips to 2028-2029 as Beef Hits $9.64 a Pound
1 articles · Updated · Fox Business · Jun 11
Summary
$9.64-per-pound retail beef in April marked a record, with Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe saying meaningful U.S. herd rebuilding may not begin until 2028 or 2029.
A 72-year low in the cattle herd is the main constraint, as ranchers must hold back more female cattle for breeding instead of sending them to market, slowing any supply rebound.
Screwworm concerns in Texas and New Mexico have added pressure by disrupting cattle imports from Mexico, which supply about 4% to 5% of the U.S. live cattle market.
Demand has stayed firm despite higher prices, especially heading into summer grilling season, leaving the beef market stuck in a rare mix of tight supply and resilient consumer buying.
With the cattle herd at a 70-year low, can the U.S. beef industry survive a devastating screwworm outbreak?
As beef prices make grilling a luxury, how close are consumers to abandoning steak for good?
Record U.S. Beef Prices and Shrinking Herds in 2026: Causes, Consequences, and the Road to Recovery
Overview
In mid-2026, the U.S. beef market faces a critical situation with record-high prices and a shrinking cattle herd. The cattle inventory dropped to 86.2 million head, down 300,000 from the previous year, while the 2025 calf crop fell to its lowest since 1941. This ongoing decline is driven by years of herd liquidation, high production costs, and persistent drought. As a result, beef has become scarce and expensive for consumers, with strong demand keeping prices elevated. The tight supply and high costs are expected to persist, delaying any significant herd recovery and shaping the market outlook for years to come.