1-2 more years of pressure on row-crop prices are likely, Justin Benevidez said, with burdensome stocks expected to persist unless major weather shocks or transport disruptions hit key global breadbaskets.
15 years of mismatched input costs and output returns have made farm profitability more structurally difficult, he said, arguing the sector needs stronger demand growth and cheaper inputs rather than short-term fixes.
Cattle markets are showing the earliest signs of herd rebuilding through slightly higher heifer retention, but forage shortages and weather risks could slow expansion and keep any price decline gradual.
Fertilizer costs remain volatile because Gulf supply-chain disruptions can take weeks or months to filter through even after facilities resume operations.
Consumers still tend to choose lower-priced meat over domestic-label preferences, Benevidez said, while trade disruptions can permanently reshape competition—as Brazil did in cotton after 2018-2020.
High prices call for more cattle, but with severe drought, is a U.S. herd rebuild actually possible in 2026?
Can new biofuel mandates rescue farmers from burdensome global stocks and persistent high input costs?