Updated

Updated · Deadline · Jun 17

Toy Story 5 Targets $275 Million Global Opening as Domestic Forecast Eases to $140 Million

Updated

Updated · Deadline · Jun 17

Toy Story 5 Targets $275 Million Global Opening as Domestic Forecast Eases to $140 Million

Q: Will record box office prove critics wrong about the franchise's 'worst' rated Toy Story film?

Probably not in the way the question suggests. If “Toy Story 5” opens to a franchise-record $140 million domestically and about $275 million worldwide, it would show that critics’ slightly cooler response has not hurt audience demand. But it would not really prove critics “wrong,” because the reviews are still strongly positive. The key fact is that “Toy Story 5” is only the lowest-rated film in an exceptionally acclaimed series. At 93% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, it remains a critical hit by normal standards, even if it trails the near-perfect scores of the earlier films. That means the debate is less about critics rejecting the movie and more about whether audiences care that it is the least acclaimed entry in a very high-performing franchise. The box office tracking suggests they may not. Presales are running ahead of “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” at the same stage, and audience interest is especially strong among women under 25, a group tied closely to Gen Z, which has become a major force in theatrical attendance. The Juneteenth holiday frame and a strong summer market also support a big launch. If the film delivers those numbers, the clearer takeaway will be that brand strength, nostalgia, family appeal and Pixar’s event status can outweigh relative critical rankings. A record opening would not overturn the reviews; it would show that the “worst”-reviewed mainline “Toy Story” is still, by most measures, a well-reviewed film with major commercial power.

3 articles · Updated · Deadline · Jun 17

$275 million worldwide would give Disney-Pixar's Toy Story 5 the franchise's biggest global debut, with $140 million projected from 4,425 North American theaters for the top domestic opening of 2026.
The domestic forecast was trimmed from $150 million as presales reached $25 million and leaned heavily on the Juneteenth holiday, making Friday strength and Saturday hold the key variables.
$135 million is expected from overseas markets despite a softer outlook in Asia, with English-speaking territories, Latin America and France seen driving most of the international haul.
The opening would top Toy Story 4's $249 million global and $120.9 million domestic starts, but still trail 2026 leader The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at $372.5 million worldwide.
A 93% Rotten Tomatoes score and Father's Day weekend timing should support the launch, while Pixar's all-time domestic opening record remains Incredibles 2 at $182.6 million.