Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jun 16

France Chases 3rd Straight World Cup Final in 2026 Group I With Senegal, Norway, Iraq

Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jun 16

France Chases 3rd Straight World Cup Final in 2026 Group I With Senegal, Norway, Iraq

Q: Will France avenge its historic 2002 upset, or can Senegal stun the world again in their opening match?

France are favored to avenge the 2002 defeat, but Senegal are strong enough to make this a genuine test rather than a nostalgia-driven mismatch. The evidence points clearly toward France. They enter the Group I opener at MetLife Stadium as one of the tournament favorites, ranked third in the world and carrying a deeper squad led by Kylian Mbappé. Betting markets have France around -200, and Opta’s model gives Les Bleus roughly a 64.8 percent chance of winning, compared with 14.9 percent for Senegal and 20.3 percent for a draw. France also arrive with the motivation of another title push after reaching the last two World Cup finals. Still, Senegal are far from a token underdog. They are ranked around 15th-16th, have reached three straight World Cups, and remain one of Africa’s strongest sides. Coach Pape Thiaw, part of the 2002 squad, has insisted a win over France would no longer count as a miracle because Senegal now have world-class players. Sadio Mané’s experience and Senegal’s physical, organized style give them a real chance to disrupt France. The 2002 result matters more as a warning than a predictor. France’s current squad is stronger and more balanced than the injury-hit defending champions Senegal shocked 24 years ago, while Didier Deschamps has publicly stressed humility over revenge. So the most likely outcome is a France win, but Senegal have enough quality and belief to produce at least a draw—and if France start slowly, another upset cannot be ruled out.

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jun 16

Group I pairs two-time champion France with Senegal, Norway and Iraq in the 2026 World Cup’s 12-group opening stage.
France enter ranked No. 3 and are seeking a third straight final after titles in 1998 and 2018, carrying a 39-14-20 World Cup record into an eighth consecutive appearance.
Senegal, ranked 15th, return for a fourth World Cup after a 2002 quarterfinal run and still own the distinction of beating reigning champion France in their tournament debut.
Norway are back for the first time since 1998 after a perfect qualifying campaign powered by Erling Haaland’s 16 goals, while Iraq make only their second appearance and first since 1986.