SSI Research Sees Vietnam Q2 GDP Rising 8.2%-8.5% as Investment Replaces Exports
Updated
Updated · happyvietnam.vnanet.vn · Jun 14
SSI Research Sees Vietnam Q2 GDP Rising 8.2%-8.5% as Investment Replaces Exports
1 articles · Updated · happyvietnam.vnanet.vn · Jun 14
Summary
Vietnam’s real GDP growth likely accelerated to 8.2%-8.5% in Q2 from 7.83% in Q1, with SSI Research saying stronger June data could push the figure toward 9%.
Realised FDI inflows and a public investment drive are now the main engines, with infrastructure spending, faster project approvals and digital public services lifting underlying productivity.
SSI expects growth to strengthen further in H2 and keep its full-year 2026 GDP forecast near 9%, implying second-half growth close to 10% as FDI and public investment peak.
Domestic financial conditions remain a constraint: banking liquidity is unlikely to improve much soon, interest rates may stay higher for longer, and any Fed cut would offer limited relief.
Risks still include a wider trade deficit, possible US Section 301 policy changes and inflation near policy ceilings, though SSI argues higher capital-goods imports reflect capacity expansion rather than weakness.
In Q2 2026, Vietnam’s economic outlook is shaped by a major shift in capital flows. As the real estate and gold markets cool and regulations tighten on cryptocurrencies, domestic investors are moving their funds back into equities. This rotation is reinforced by the prospect of market upgrades, which is attracting substantial foreign institutional inflows. The combined effect of renewed domestic interest and foreign investment is boosting investor confidence and market liquidity, supporting a positive momentum in the stock market and signaling strong economic prospects for the rest of the year.