Georgia Republicans Hold June 16 Senate Runoff as Collins Leads Dooley by Up to 16.3 Points

Q: With polls favoring one candidate, can a key endorsement from the governor sway the outcome of Georgia's Senate runoff?

Yes, but it may not be enough on its own to erase Mike Collins’ polling advantage. Governor Brian Kemp has endorsed Derek Dooley and gone beyond a routine endorsement by campaigning with him and backing him through allied advertising. That support appears to have mattered already: Dooley, a political newcomer, advanced to the runoff after finishing well behind Collins in the first round, and Kemp’s involvement was widely seen as helping fuel his late push. Still, the available evidence suggests Collins enters Tuesday in the stronger position. Collins led the initial primary with 40.5% to Dooley’s 30.19%, and multiple late-May and early-June polls showed him ahead by roughly 5 to 16 points. A CivicLens survey put Collins at 49.6% to Dooley’s 40.1%, while other polling similarly showed Collins maintaining a clear edge. What makes Kemp’s endorsement potentially important is the nature of a runoff. Turnout is usually lower, and a motivated network, strong organization and heavy advertising can have a larger effect in a smaller electorate. With President Donald Trump staying neutral in this race, Kemp’s backing is one of the most significant outside signals available to Republican voters. So the endorsement can sway some voters and improve Dooley’s chances, especially in a low-turnout runoff. But based on the polling and Collins’ stronger first-round finish, Kemp’s support looks more likely to narrow the race than to make Dooley the favorite.

3 articles · Updated · Savannah Morning News · Jun 13

Georgia Republicans vote Tuesday in a U.S. Senate runoff after no candidate won a primary majority, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Mike Collins enters the runoff as the front-runner over Derek Dooley after taking 40.5% in the primary to Dooley’s 30.19%.
Recent surveys also put Collins ahead: CivicLens showed 49.6% to 40.1%, while Quantus Insights had him up 53.5% to 37.2%.
The winner will face Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who was unopposed in the primary, in the general election.
Donald Trump had not endorsed either Republican candidate as of publication, though he said he might back one.