A leaked Makerfield by-election poll suggests Restore Britain could draw enough support from Reform to deny Nigel Farage’s party a seat and improve Andy Burnham’s chances.
Restore’s appeal appears driven less by a new ideological shift than by voters’ focus on immigration, which many link to pressure on housing, public services, wages and community cohesion.
That opening reflects a deeper collapse of trust in mainstream parties after years of unmet promises in northern towns, where voters are increasingly backing whoever seems most likely to act.
Reform is especially exposed because Restore offers a similar anti-immigration message with a harder anti-establishment tone, sharpening doubts after Rupert Lowe’s rupture with Farage.
Makerfield’s broader significance is that the northern voters who already abandoned Labour may also be willing to abandon Reform, threatening Farage’s effort to consolidate the anti-establishment vote.