NBER Study Links iPhone Access to 4.5%-8% Teen Birth Drop in Early U.S. Rollout

3 articles · Updated · Fortune · Jun 12

Births fell fastest where AT&T first sold the iPhone from 2007 to 2011, with declines of 4.5% to 8% among ages 15-19 and 3.2% to 6.6% among ages 20-24.
Researchers used AT&T’s early iPhone monopoly as a natural experiment and said the link held even after accounting for housing prices and how urban or rural an area was.
Survey data in the paper tied smartphone-era adoption to less time with peers and less sex, supporting economists’ argument that phones changed dating and social connection.
The findings add a new explanation to a U.S. fertility slump that continued after the Great Recession and hit a record low in 2024, with potential long-term strain on labor supply and social programs.