Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Jun 9
Maine Governor Primaries Defy 50% Mark as 8 Polls Leave Ranked-Choice Outcome Unclear
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Jun 9

Maine Governor Primaries Defy 50% Mark as 8 Polls Leave Ranked-Choice Outcome Unclear

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 9

Summary

  • Eight polls of Maine’s open governor primaries show no candidate above 50%, leaving Tuesday’s ranked-choice count likely to decide both parties’ contests.
  • Five Democrats are split across sparse first-choice polling: Nirav Shah leads every survey, but only one recent poll modeled ranked-choice voting and showed Hannah Pingree winning in the fourth round by 4 points.
  • That uncertainty is heightened by the polling itself — only three surveys were independent, several were sponsor-backed, and none came after likely Senate nominee Graham Platner endorsed ranking Troy Jackson, Shenna Bellows and Pingree.
  • Republican polling is even thinner, though Bobby Charles has led consistently, posting 28% to 47% in available surveys against a crowded field that includes Jonathan Bush.
  • With Janet Mills term-limited and Democrats favored in November, the primary’s elimination rounds could matter more than the first-choice leaderboard.

Insights

When first-choice polls fail, how will voters' second choices determine Maine's next governor nominees?
Can an outsider's popularity overcome the strategic alliances of political insiders in a ranked-choice election?