Newsrooms Bar Journalists From Prediction Markets as Polymarket Bets Reach Thousands
Updated
Updated · Poynter · Jun 8
Newsrooms Bar Journalists From Prediction Markets as Polymarket Bets Reach Thousands
2 articles · Updated · Poynter · Jun 8
Summary
ProPublica, NPR and Time have moved to explicitly ban staff from using prediction markets, tightening ethics rules as U.S. newsrooms confront the rise of sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Those bans target conflicts unique to journalists: reporters may learn market-moving information before the public, publish stories that effectively settle wagers, or appear to profit from the events they cover.
A March report on an Iranian missile attack on Israel showed the risks spilling offline, after Polymarket bettors sent death threats to a journalist whose reporting affected a wagered event.
The debate now extends beyond personal betting to coverage itself, including whether outlets should cite market odds or strike data deals like Dow Jones' integration with Polymarket.
Ethics experts remain split: some call prediction-market coverage a harmful form of horse-race journalism, while others say the markets can still produce newsworthy signals such as insider-trading cases.