CDC Models DRC Ebola at 20,000 Cases in 3 Months if Only 20% Isolate
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · Jun 8
CDC Models DRC Ebola at 20,000 Cases in 3 Months if Only 20% Isolate
3 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Jun 8
Summary
CDC researchers said an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo could top 20,000 cases within three months if only 20% of infected people isolate and no new vaccines or treatments are added.
At roughly 70% isolation, the agency’s scenarios cut that risk sharply, putting the chance of reaching 10,000 cases within three months at about 1 in 20.
Satish Pillai, who leads the CDC’s Ebola response, said it is unclear how many infected people are being detected and isolating, but the outbreak’s spread across multiple health zones suggests that share is on the low end.
A separate CDC report counted 378 confirmed cases and 63 deaths, while warning the true outbreak is likely larger and may be difficult to contain.
Jason Asher, head of the CDC’s forecasting center, said the scenarios are planning tools rather than forecasts, and the agency still assesses the risk to the U.S. population as low.