Prediction Markets Lift SpaceX-Tesla Merger Odds to 61% After $1.77 Trillion IPO Filing Update
Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Jun 8
Prediction Markets Lift SpaceX-Tesla Merger Odds to 61% After $1.77 Trillion IPO Filing Update
3 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Jun 8
Summary
Kalshi now prices a SpaceX-Tesla merger at 51% before March 2027 and 61% before May 2027, while Polymarket puts the chance of an announcement by December at 41%.
SpaceX's updated IPO filing drove the move by adding language that it may issue a significant amount of equity for future transactions, fueling bets that post-IPO shares could be used in a deal.
A merger after SpaceX's anticipated $1.77 trillion IPO could create a roughly $3.3 trillion company combining Tesla's terrestrial AI assets with SpaceX's Starlink and orbital infrastructure.
Regulatory review, shareholder approval and thin prediction-market liquidity still leave the outcome uncertain, making the contracts more a gauge of sentiment than proof a deal is imminent.