SpaceX Needs $1.1 Trillion Revenue by 2035 to Justify $1.75 Trillion IPO Valuation
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Jun 6
SpaceX Needs $1.1 Trillion Revenue by 2035 to Justify $1.75 Trillion IPO Valuation
3 articles · Updated · Fortune · Jun 6
Summary
$1.1 trillion in 2035 revenue is the benchmark David Trainer says SpaceX must hit for investors to earn about 10% annually on a $1.75 trillion IPO valuation.
That target implies a rise from $18.7 billion in 2025 sales, with revenue compounding roughly 50% a year for a decade despite SpaceX posting a $4.9 billion loss last year.
The final stretch alone would require a $360 billion one-year sales increase from $718 billion to $1.1 trillion—more than four times Nvidia's $85 billion gain from 2024 to 2025.
At that scale, SpaceX would generate about 2.4% of projected 2035 U.S. GDP, making it larger than the entire utilities sector and close to three-quarters of transportation.
Trainer argues a nearly $30 trillion AI market may be large, but competition from Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI and others makes such an unprecedented share look highly improbable.
Can SpaceX's proven rockets carry a money-losing AI business to a $1.8 trillion valuation?
With Musk in total control, are investors buying into SpaceX or just funding his next high-risk venture?
SpaceX’s $1.75 Trillion IPO: Retail Investor Surge, AI-Driven Valuation, and the High-Stakes Bet on Mars
Overview
SpaceX’s IPO, scheduled for June 12, is set to make history by redefining traditional IPO strategies through Elon Musk’s unconventional approach. The company is introducing a fixed IPO pricing model, deliberately moving away from Wall Street’s usual methods to control its market entry. A standout feature is the unprecedented 30% retail allocation, which bypasses standard institutional gatekeepers and taps directly into SpaceX’s strong cultural following. This strategy aims to democratize access to shares, making the IPO more accessible to individual investors and reflecting SpaceX’s commitment to innovation not just in technology, but also in financial markets.