Euro Zone PMI Falls to 48.5, Signaling 0.2% Q2 GDP Contraction
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 3
Euro Zone PMI Falls to 48.5, Signaling 0.2% Q2 GDP Contraction
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 3
Summary
Euro zone private sector activity shrank for a second straight month in May, with the composite PMI slipping to an 18-month low of 48.5 and S&P Global pointing to a 0.2% quarterly GDP decline.
Waning demand drove the downturn: total new orders fell for a third month, export orders dropped at their fastest pace this year, and services improved only slightly to 47.7—still below the 50 mark that signals growth.
Germany and France led the deterioration, while Italy and Spain managed only marginal expansions; firms also reported the fastest job shedding in 5-1/2 years, though layoffs remained mild.
Input costs rose at their sharpest pace in 3-1/2 years and prices charged hit a 38-month high after May inflation accelerated to 3.2%, as the Middle East war pushed up fuel prices.
That mix of weaker growth and hotter inflation complicates the ECB's June meeting, where economists are split over whether it will raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
With inflation soaring and jobs vanishing, is the Eurozone entering a long-term crisis?
Can the ECB's rate hikes save the euro without sinking its war-strained economy?
Is Europe's surge in defense spending a cure for recession or another fiscal burden?
Stagflation Looms Over Eurozone: Inflation, Energy Shock, and Policy Dilemmas in 2026-2027
Overview
In May 2026, the Eurozone economy faced a deepening downturn as business activity struggled and price pressures surged to their highest in over three years. This was mainly driven by an ongoing energy shock, which intensified inflationary pressures and pushed inflation close to 4%. The negative business sentiment and contractionary trends in key indicators reflected growing concerns among businesses and policymakers. The energy shock, linked to geopolitical tensions, not only raised operational costs but also diverted focus from long-term reforms. As a result, the Eurozone entered a challenging period marked by persistent inflation, weak growth, and heightened uncertainty about the future.