Goldman Sachs Sees Fuel Margins 2-3 Times Higher Through 2026 as Hormuz Disruptions Tighten Supply
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 2
Goldman Sachs Sees Fuel Margins 2-3 Times Higher Through 2026 as Hormuz Disruptions Tighten Supply
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 2
Summary
Refined fuel margins are set to stay sharply elevated through 2026, with Goldman Sachs saying diesel margins will run $19-$26 a barrel above pre-war forecasts.
4 million barrels per day of global refined product exports have been lost from a year earlier, driven by missing Persian Gulf shipments and lower Asian refinery output after disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman expects gasoline and especially diesel inventories to keep falling in the early reopening phase because demand should recover faster than refined product supply.
By fourth-quarter 2026, the bank sees U.S. diesel margins at $50 a barrel and European diesel at $37, while global refinery utilization climbs toward a record high.
About 2.5 million bpd of Middle East refinery outages, a sub-optimal crude slate and continued attacks on Russian refining infrastructure point to a refining system that stays structurally tight into 2027.