California to Outgrow U.S. as UCLA Sees 5.6% Jobless Peak and Iran War Risks
Updated
Updated · Times of San Diego · Jun 3
California to Outgrow U.S. as UCLA Sees 5.6% Jobless Peak and Iran War Risks
3 articles · Updated · Times of San Diego · Jun 3
Summary
California’s income and output are still projected to grow faster than the U.S., even after UCLA Anderson slightly downgraded its outlook from three months ago.
5.3% unemployment in April is expected to rise to 5.6% later this year, reflecting tepid hiring despite support from tech, venture capital and other high-productivity sectors.
Iran war risks could hit California harder than much of the nation because the state relies on already-costly low-emissions gasoline and Pacific trade moving on fuel-intensive ships.
110,000 housing permits a year remain far below what California needs, while deportations may shrink construction labor and tariffs are raising imported material costs.
Nationally, UCLA sees a more stagflation-like backdrop, with real GDP growth slowing to 2.1% through late 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.