US Signals Separate Lebanon Track on Hezbollah as Israel Undercuts a $2.5 Billion State-Building Effort
Updated
Updated · Foreign Policy · May 14
US Signals Separate Lebanon Track on Hezbollah as Israel Undercuts a $2.5 Billion State-Building Effort
2 articles · Updated · Foreign Policy · May 14
The Trump administration has signaled it wants to handle Lebanon separately and curb Hezbollah through diplomacy and state institutions rather than continued Israeli airpower.
That shift reflects a central contradiction: Israel demands Beirut disarm Hezbollah while weakening the very tools needed to do it, including the Lebanese Armed Forces and the U.N.'s roughly 8,000-strong UNIFIL mission.
Lebanon's capacity has eroded sharply — the defense budget fell from about $2 billion in 2019 to $432 million in 2020 and was only around $240 million in 2023 — despite roughly $2.5 billion in U.S. military aid since 2006.
A U.S.-backed phased plan reportedly tied Hezbollah disarmament by end-2025 to an Israeli withdrawal and halt to strikes, but the article says that approach faded as wider U.S.-Israel bargaining took precedence.
The piece argues a durable outcome now depends on enforcing the cease-fire, rebuilding the LAF, reinforcing UNIFIL and backing Lebanese governance, because Hezbollah is likely to reconstitute if Lebanon emerges shattered again.
With both Israel and Hezbollah rebuilding and rearming, can U.S.-led diplomacy actually break the cycle of violence along the Lebanese-Israeli border?
Could massive international investment in Lebanon’s reconstruction and economy achieve more lasting stability than continued military action or sanctions?
Lebanon on the Brink: 2026 War, Hezbollah Disarmament Crisis, and the Threat of State Collapse
Overview
The report traces how the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated into a full-scale war in September 2024, following Hezbollah’s missile attacks in support of Palestinians after the October 2023 Hamas-led assault in southern Israel. Despite earlier indirect negotiations and a ceasefire agreement mediated by Washington—which called for Hezbollah’s disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon—the deal was never fully enforced. As fighting intensified, Israel moved to occupy more Lebanese territory to create a buffer zone, while Lebanon pushed for a return to the unfulfilled agreement. These developments have deepened Lebanon’s internal divisions and heightened the risk of state collapse.