Polymarket Users Lose Money at 2024 Sportsbook Rates

6 articles · Updated · FlowingData · May 14

2024 data reviewed by the Washington Post show many Polymarket users are losing money at roughly the same rate as online sportsbook gamblers.
Akey et al. research suggests most users are simply poor at predicting outcomes, eroding the idea that prediction markets reliably reward forecasting skill.
A small slice of traders posted outsized gains, but many appeared to be professionals using automated strategies to place thousands or even millions of bets.
Some apparent winners may also have benefited from insider knowledge, underscoring how hard it is for ordinary users to beat the market.

If most users lose money, are prediction markets simply a new form of high-stakes online gambling?

Why are investors pouring billions into platforms where the vast majority of customers are losing money?

A soldier used state secrets to profit. Are prediction markets the next major national security threat?