Culper Research Shorts Nvidia, Citing China for Over 20% of Fiscal 2026 Compute Revenue
Updated
Updated · CNBC · May 14
Culper Research Shorts Nvidia, Citing China for Over 20% of Fiscal 2026 Compute Revenue
7 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 14
Culper Research disclosed a short position in Nvidia on Wednesday, arguing the chipmaker still depends heavily on China despite saying its China business effectively fell to zero after April 2025 export curbs.
More than 20% of Nvidia's fiscal 2026 compute revenue remains tied to China through illegal GPU diversion and Southeast Asian intermediaries, Culper alleged; Nvidia did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The bet targets one of the market's biggest AI winners as short sellers increasingly hunt for weak spots in an AI rally they say is marked by speculative excess, copycat branding and fragile business models.
At the Sohn Investment Conference, bearish investors also flagged companies such as Rezolve AI and other firms that rebranded around AI, while Michael Burry and Jim Chanos warned the boom could echo dot-com-era mispricing.
Could today’s AI boom collapse like the dot-com bubble, and how can investors tell real innovation from hype?
How much risk do major AI companies face from regulatory crackdowns, export restrictions, or allegations of 'AI washing'?
Are AI-driven job losses and fraud outpacing the promised productivity gains, and what can be done to protect workers and consumers?
Nvidia Faces $30 Billion Revenue Risk Amid Alleged China Diversion Network: Culper Research Report and Market Impact
Overview
On May 13, 2026, Culper Research released a critical report on Nvidia, announcing a short position and predicting a share price decline. The report highlighted a significant China problem, warning of a massive 'air gap' in Nvidia's future revenue as Beijing favors domestic chip alternatives and tightens import restrictions. Culper alleged that a substantial portion of Nvidia’s 2026 compute revenue is still linked to China, contradicting Nvidia’s public statements and CEO Jensen Huang’s denials that its China business had ceased after April 2025. This raised concerns about Nvidia’s transparency and the true extent of its exposure to the Chinese market.