IEA Says 14 Million-Barrel-a-Day Gulf Supply Loss Will Persist Until Hormuz Reopens
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 13
IEA Says 14 Million-Barrel-a-Day Gulf Supply Loss Will Persist Until Hormuz Reopens
5 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 13
Fatih Birol said the global energy crisis will not end until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, warning the economic damage from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is still unfolding.
More than 14 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf oil output remains offline versus prewar levels, the IEA said, draining global inventories at a record pace after what it calls the biggest supply disruption in oil-market history.
The agency has already coordinated a 400 million-barrel emergency stock release and Birol said more reserves could be tapped if needed.
Birol said the shock is spreading beyond fuel, with higher fertilizer costs threatening future food prices even as about 40 countries adopt demand-cutting steps such as transit subsidies and work-from-home measures.
The Hormuz crisis exposed global fragility. Which vital trade chokepoint is the next to face a potential shutdown?
As the world pivots to renewables, will China’s new fossil fuel goals create the next global energy standoff?
Global Oil Shock 2026: Strait of Hormuz Closure Cuts 20 Million Barrels/Day, Triggers Economic and Policy Upheaval
Overview
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in May 2026 triggered an immediate and severe crisis, causing a sharp contraction in global oil demand and profoundly disrupting energy markets. This disruption led to widespread demand erosion, including a significant drop in jet fuel use due to suspended flights across the Middle East. As a result, global oil demand projections for 2026 were revised downward, reversing previous expectations of growth. The crisis highlights how a single chokepoint can rapidly impact global supply and demand, forcing countries to rethink energy security and emergency response strategies.