Analyst Backs Astros at +108 Over Mariners as Luis Castillo Carries 6.57 ERA

12 articles · Updated · Fox News · May 14

Houston is the pick to beat Seattle, with the analyst citing plus-108 odds and a matchup tilted by Luis Castillo's rough start to 2026.
Castillo is 0-4 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, has allowed at least four earned runs in three straight starts, and Seattle is 2-6 in his eight outings.
Mike Burrows brings shakier season numbers — 5.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP — but enters off two quality starts, including seven scoreless innings against Cincinnati.
Yordan Alvarez is also highlighted for 2+ total bases at -123 after going 10-for-22 with four homers against Castillo, whose opponents from Houston are batting .274.
The call comes with both AL West clubs struggling overall: Seattle is 21-23 despite a 3.63 team ERA, while Houston is 17-27 with a staff ERA of 5.54.

The betting pick seemed flawless, so what hidden factor led to the underdog Mariners' surprising victory?

Despite a disastrous start, why do projections still favor the underperforming Mariners to win their division?

Why did Seattle's ace falter while their elite pitching staff thrived, defying all preseason predictions?