Goldman Sachs Sees 2 South Africa Rate Hikes in 2026 as Iran War Lifts Inflation Risks
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · May 14
Goldman Sachs Sees 2 South Africa Rate Hikes in 2026 as Iran War Lifts Inflation Risks
4 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 14
Two quarter-point South Africa rate hikes are now Goldman Sachs’ base case for May and July, reversing its earlier expectation for a run of cuts this year.
Goldman changed course after lifting its oil-price and inflation assumptions, saying the Iran war and broader Middle East tensions are increasing global price pressures.
Andrew Matheny said the revised call reflects a tougher inflation outlook for South Africa, where higher imported energy costs could push the central bank toward tightening instead of easing.
If oil supply normalizes, could South Africa's expected rate hikes quickly reverse, or is inflation risk now structurally higher?
How might extended Middle East conflict permanently reshape global energy markets and force central banks to rethink their inflation strategies?
Could this crisis spur a major shift toward renewables or new supply chains, reducing future vulnerability to geopolitical shocks?