Trump Eyes Boeing Order Worth $100 Billion as Traders Price 81% Odds of China Tariff Truce Extension
Updated
Updated · CNBC · May 13
Trump Eyes Boeing Order Worth $100 Billion as Traders Price 81% Odds of China Tariff Truce Extension
11 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 13
Kalshi traders assign an 86% chance that Trump announces a China purchase of Boeing aircraft in Beijing, with Wolfe Research saying speculation centers on a record order potentially worth triple-digit billions of dollars.
An 81% probability is also priced for extending the U.S.-China tariff truce, after October's deal paused Chinese rare-earth export controls and cut U.S. fentanyl-related tariffs on China to 10% from 20%.
Boeing shares rose nearly 2% ahead of the meeting, while Barclays said any aircraft deal could help push that 10% tariff a few points lower and be paired with soybean purchases, which traders rate at 79% odds.
A U.S.-China Board of Trade carries 69% odds and is seen by analysts as a mechanism to channel Chinese purchase commitments and address the bilateral trade surplus.
Talks may still range beyond trade: traders see 61% odds Trump raises Iran, 59% odds he discusses oil or gasoline, and 54% odds artificial intelligence comes up despite expected tech executives on the trip.
Will massive trade deals for Boeing and farmers outweigh America's pressing national security concerns over Chinese technology?
As smugglers defy U.S. tech bans, can the Trump-Xi summit actually stop China's military AI progress?
Is the proposed U.S.-China trade board a pragmatic solution or a concession to China's economic system?
Boeing’s $30 Billion China Deal and the 2026 Trump-Xi Summit: Trade Truce, Tech Rivalry, and the Future of U.S.-China Relations
Overview
President Donald Trump's state visit to Beijing in May 2026 marks a pivotal moment in U.S.-China relations, with a strong delegation of U.S. business leaders highlighting the economic focus of the summit. This high-level engagement is designed to foster dialogue and signals the potential for significant economic agreements, including a substantial Boeing aircraft order and the temporary extension of the U.S.-China trade truce. These anticipated outcomes offer short-term wins for U.S. exporters and provide a period of stability, even as deeper structural issues remain unresolved. The summit underscores the importance of ongoing communication between the two countries.