NYT Flags 80 Polymarket Accounts for Suspicious Bets Across Nearly 30 Topics
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 13
NYT Flags 80 Polymarket Accounts for Suspicious Bets Across Nearly 30 Topics
1 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 13
More than 80 Polymarket users showed insider-trading red flags, a New York Times review found, including 38 whose well-timed wagers had drawn little or no public scrutiny.
Those accounts won across nearly 30 topics since at least 2024, with warning signs including long-shot bets that paid off, newly opened accounts and users who repeatedly bet on narrow themes without losing.
Thirteen users wagered $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran by the end of a June week despite low odds; the attack came later that day, and the accounts cleared more than $600,000.
Seven of those accounts had opened days earlier, while another had a record of successful Iran-related military bets, adding to concerns that prediction markets can be exploited by people with confidential information.
The scrutiny reaches beyond Polymarket: an Israeli military reservist was recently indicted over bets tied to the June strike, and a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier was accused last month of wagering on Nicolás Maduro's capture.
With military secrets being bet on for profit, can regulators stop these markets from becoming a national security threat?
If prediction markets reward inside knowledge, are they exposing truth or creating a new playground for corruption?