Global Rice Output to Fall to 538 Million Tons as 2026-27 Stockpiles Shrink
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · May 13
Global Rice Output to Fall to 538 Million Tons as 2026-27 Stockpiles Shrink
1 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 13
538 million tons of rice output is projected for 2026-27, the USDA said, marking the first global production decline in 11 years.
India, Myanmar and the US are expected to drive the drop, with the US harvest seen falling 15% from a year earlier as farmers plant less.
Record consumption and trade are set to compound the supply hit, curbing global rice stockpiles after a decade of production growth.
The decline tightens supplies of a key food staple, raising pressure on a market central to diets across Asia and beyond.
With farmers planting less rice due to soaring costs, is a global food crisis and price shock now inevitable?
As global rice stockpiles dwindle, which nations are most at risk of food riots and social unrest?
Can gene-edited 'super rice' be developed fast enough to feed the world amid worsening climate change?
Global Rice Market Outlook 2025-2027: Record Highs, Looming Decline, and Rising Food Security Risks
Overview
The global rice market in 2025/26 and early 2026 stands at a turning point, with record-high production driven by strong yields in major Asian countries and robust output in regions like Latin America and the Caribbean. This surge has pushed global cereal production to new highs, supported by increased harvested acres in the United States. Despite these strong supply fundamentals, the market faces early price volatility and shifting trade dynamics, as comfortable stock levels are challenged by economic pressures, climate risks, and evolving international demand. This complex environment sets the stage for potential instability and heightened food security concerns in the coming season.