S&P Cuts SoftBank Outlook to Negative as $30 Billion OpenAI Bet Stretches Debt Capacity
Updated
Updated · Reuters · May 12
S&P Cuts SoftBank Outlook to Negative as $30 Billion OpenAI Bet Stretches Debt Capacity
7 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 12
SoftBank’s credit outlook was revised to negative after its latest OpenAI funding round, with S&P warning the group’s asset liquidity, portfolio quality and financial capacity could deteriorate.
The pressure stems from an aggressive AI push: SoftBank has secured a $40 billion bridge loan, plans to invest another $30 billion in OpenAI in 2026, and still faces about $25 billion of other 2026 commitments.
Analysts nevertheless expect a robust January-March quarter, forecasting net profit of 236 billion yen, while TD Cowen values SoftBank’s 11% OpenAI stake at about $80 billion at end-March, up from $54.4 billion in December.
Funding questions remain acute after a report said creditors balked at a proposed margin loan backed by the OpenAI stake, even as another report said SoftBank may list a U.S. AI and robotics company at a $100 billion valuation.
Stock investors are still backing Masayoshi Son’s AI strategy: SoftBank shares have nearly doubled since early April, and Nomura recently lifted its target price to 7,500 yen.
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SoftBank’s $64.6 Billion OpenAI Stake: Credit Downgrade, Debt Risks, and the Future of AI Mega-Deals
Overview
In March 2026, SoftBank Group’s credit outlook was downgraded after it made a bold $30 billion follow-on investment in OpenAI, financed by a record $40 billion unsecured bridge loan. This move raised concerns among credit rating agencies and analysts about SoftBank’s growing asset concentration, its liquidity position, and the structurally fragile nature of the funding. As a result, SoftBank’s total investment in OpenAI reached $64.6 billion, giving it a 13% stake. The downgrade highlights the risks of aggressive, highly leveraged investments and the challenges SoftBank faces in managing financial stability amid rapid expansion in the AI sector.