Xi Shifts China Into Phase 2 Stalemate With U.S. After 145% Trump Tariffs
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 13
Xi Shifts China Into Phase 2 Stalemate With U.S. After 145% Trump Tariffs
1 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 13
China has moved from defensive resistance to a “Phase 2” strategic stalemate with the United States, with Xi Jinping treating this week’s Trump visit to Beijing as a pause in a longer contest rather than a reset.
Mao Zedong’s 1938 essay “On Protracted War” has become a guiding frame for that approach: endure pressure from a stronger rival, reach parity, then prepare for a later counteroffensive and eventual “final victory.”
Beijing’s confidence rests on gains in manufacturing, technology, military power and diplomacy, plus its response to last year’s trade clash, when Chinese export controls on critical minerals helped force Trump to retreat from 145% tariffs.
Trump arrives with less leverage as the Iran war has delayed the trip, raised costs and hurt his approval ratings, even as Xi seeks narrower concessions on tariffs, export controls and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
With U.S. leverage weakened, can Trump's visit prevent China from gaining a permanent strategic advantage?
Beyond the summit, is the U.S. prepared for the final 'counteroffensive' phase of China's long-term strategy?
Is China's control over rare earths the key to winning its 'protracted war' against the United States?
U.S.-China Trade and Geopolitical Showdown (2025-2026): Tariffs, Summits, and Global Economic Fallout
Overview
As the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing approaches, the leaders of the U.S. and China are set for another high-stakes meeting amid global instability, including the Iran war and China’s economic challenges. President Trump’s large delegation, featuring top American CEOs like Elon Musk and Jensen Huang, highlights the importance of business ties and signals efforts to restore key relationships. The summit follows a recent pause in the trade war, but ongoing tensions and strategic maneuvering by both sides show that this meeting is more about managing competition and uncertainty than achieving lasting solutions.