Updated · Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG · May 12
Russia Cedes Influence Across 3 Regions as China, Turkiye and U.S. Move Into Vacuums
Updated
Updated · Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG · May 12
Russia Cedes Influence Across 3 Regions as China, Turkiye and U.S. Move Into Vacuums
1 articles · Updated · Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG · May 12
Russia’s refusal to back Iran despite a January 2025 strategic pact is presented as the clearest sign that Moscow’s reach has shrunk under the strain of its war in Ukraine.
That retreat is already redrawing regional balances: Turkiye is emerging as the main power in the South Caucasus and pushing into Central Asia, while China is tightening informal control over Russia’s Far East resources and energy.
The U.S. is seen making more selective gains, especially in the Western Hemisphere, where pressure on Venezuela and Cuba has left Russia with little ability to respond through hard power.
Syria, Iran and parts of Africa show the limits of any clean handover, with instability, insurgents and competing outside powers likely to turn several Russian vacuums into prolonged disorder.
The report’s base case is a messy multipolar outcome in which Washington wins selectively, but China and Turkiye capture most of the strategic upside from Russia’s pullback.
As the U.S. and China realign, who will ultimately win the race to fill the void left by Russia?
Is Russia's alliance with Iran a calculated long game or a final gambit of a fading superpower?
With its Syrian naval base restored, is Russia engineering a comeback or just delaying its inevitable Middle East exit?
2026 Geopolitical Realignment: Russia, China, and the New Multipolar Order in Eurasia and Africa
Overview
In 2026, the geopolitical landscape across Eurasia and Africa is experiencing significant realignment as traditional power dynamics shift and new actors step in to fill strategic voids. Russia, while showing some economic resilience through adaptation and redirected trade to Asia, faces growing challenges to its overall influence. This has led to a complex interplay where regional and global powers compete for influence, creating new opportunities and risks. The report highlights how these changes are reshaping alliances, driving economic adjustments, and prompting both local and external actors to rethink their strategies in a rapidly evolving multipolar world.