Kagan Warns 37-Day Iran Bombing Leaves U.S. Facing Likely Defeat in Hormuz Conflict
Updated
Updated · PBS NewsHour · May 11
Kagan Warns 37-Day Iran Bombing Leaves U.S. Facing Likely Defeat in Hormuz Conflict
8 articles · Updated · PBS NewsHour · May 11
Robert Kagan said the U.S. is likely to lose the Iran conflict because 37 days of bombing killed leaders but failed to force concessions or reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Brookings fellow argued only a full-scale land invasion could remove Iran's regime and secure the waterway, an option he said Trump and the U.S. public will not accept.
Iran's latest response to peace proposals, he said, demanded war reparations, sanctions relief and formal control of the strait, signaling Tehran does not fear renewed U.S. attacks.
Kagan said a conflict ending with Iran controlling Hormuz would shift Gulf leverage away from the U.S. and Israel, hurt energy-dependent allies such as Japan and South Korea, and strengthen China and Russia.
If bombing fails and invasion is off the table, has Iran successfully checkmated U.S. military power in the Gulf?
With allies distancing themselves and rivals emboldened, is the U.S. facing an irreversible decline as a global power?
How will this unprecedented disruption to global oil supplies permanently reshape the world's economy and energy landscape?
After the 2026 U.S.-Israel Bombing of Iran: Military Defeat, Energy Crisis, and Shifting Global Power
Overview
After an Iranian drone attack killed six U.S. soldiers in Kuwait, the United States and Israel launched a 37-day bombing campaign against Iran, causing heavy damage but failing to force regime collapse or concessions. The Trump administration then tried economic pressure by blockading Iran’s ports, but Iran responded defiantly, demanding reparations, lifting of sanctions, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. This bold stance shifted leverage to Iran, exposing U.S. strategic miscalculations and weakening American influence. The failed campaign led to higher global energy prices, regional realignments, and a growing sense that U.S. power in the Middle East is in decline.