US Fentanyl Deaths Fall More Than a Third as China Curbs Precursor Supply
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · May 13
US Fentanyl Deaths Fall More Than a Third as China Curbs Precursor Supply
4 articles · Updated · The Guardian · May 13
More than a third fewer Americans were dying from fentanyl overdoses by November 2025, after national deaths had already started falling in summer 2023.
A Science study ties that decline to a supply shock: US law enforcement saw fentanyl purity drop sharply from May 2023 through end-2024, a pattern also seen in Canada.
Reports from 2024 of cartel cooks struggling to obtain Chinese precursors, alongside unusual adulterants in US street fentanyl, support the idea that China-based interventions disrupted production.
Researchers and former US officials still cannot pinpoint which Chinese measures mattered most, or prove lower purity directly caused fewer deaths, though both Beijing and Biden-era officials say Chinese action helped.
Further controls are likely to feature in this week's US-China summit, but experts warn supply shocks can be temporary and may reshape trafficking routes, as China's 2019 fentanyl ban helped push production toward Mexican cartels.
As China restricts fentanyl chemicals, what deadlier substances are cartels now pushing onto American streets?
Is the fentanyl crisis fading due to diplomacy or a bloody power struggle within Mexican cartels?