Ocasio-Cortez Tops AtlasIntel 2028 Democratic Poll at 26% as Markets Still Favor Newsom
Updated
Updated · Newsweek · May 12
Ocasio-Cortez Tops AtlasIntel 2028 Democratic Poll at 26% as Markets Still Favor Newsom
8 articles · Updated · Newsweek · May 12
AtlasIntel put Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in first place in a 2028 Democratic primary test with 26%, ahead of Pete Buttigieg at 22.4% and Gavin Newsom at 21.2%; Kamala Harris drew 12.9%.
The survey of 2,069 U.S. adults was conducted May 4-7, 2025, with a 2-point margin of error, and stands out because AtlasIntel was rated among the most accurate pollsters of the 2020 and 2024 cycles.
Ocasio-Cortez has not said she will run, recently saying her focus is changing the country rather than planning a future Senate or presidential bid.
Prediction markets still rank her behind rivals, with Kalshi giving Newsom a 25% chance to win the primary versus 8.2% for Ocasio-Cortez; Polymarket shows a similar gap.
Other recent polling points the other way: an April Harvard/Harris survey had Harris leading Democrats at 50%, with Newsom at 22% and Ocasio-Cortez at 8%.
When early polls show wildly different results, what do they truly reveal about the electorate?
As insider trading concerns plague prediction markets, can new regulations ensure their fairness?