Argentina Country Risk Falls to 498 Bps as Return to Global Markets Debate Intensifies
Updated
Updated · Reuters · May 12
Argentina Country Risk Falls to 498 Bps as Return to Global Markets Debate Intensifies
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 12
Argentina’s country risk tightened to 498 basis points on JPMorgan’s EMBI index, its lowest since early February, reviving debate over when the country should re-enter international capital markets.
Fitch’s one-notch upgrade to B- and President Javier Milei’s run of monthly fiscal surpluses since January 2024 have strengthened confidence that the government can keep servicing debt.
Economy Minister Luis Caputo has said Argentina wants the spread closer to 250 basis points before issuing new foreign bonds, arguing local financing remains cheaper while authorities build reserves.
The spread had surged above 1,400 basis points in September 2025 after legislative setbacks to Milei, then widened above 630 this year as corruption scandals hurt his popularity.
Economists are split: some say waiting could secure better rates, while others argue the current window may close as political volatility builds ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
By waiting for lower borrowing rates, is Argentina risking a closing window for its economic comeback?
Can Argentina’s fiscal shock therapy survive the political risks looming before the 2027 election?
Is Argentina building a sustainable economy or just a legal fortress for foreign miners?
Argentina’s Country Risk Hits Eight-Year Low: Window of Opportunity and the Road to Sustainable Market Access (May 2026)
Overview
In May 2026, Argentina’s country risk reached its lowest point in eight years, reflecting a surge in investor confidence and strong performance of Argentine government bonds, even as other major Latin American markets saw declines. This positive momentum signals trust in Argentina’s economic direction and its ability to manage debt. However, sustaining and further reducing country risk depends on attracting more investment, especially through the government’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI). Continued policy discipline and successful implementation of investment incentives are crucial for Argentina to solidify its financial gains and maintain this favorable window for growth.