JP Morgan Sees Oil Holding Above $100 in 2026 as Hormuz Disruption Chokes Supply
Updated
Updated · BBC.com · May 11
JP Morgan Sees Oil Holding Above $100 in 2026 as Hormuz Disruption Chokes Supply
9 articles · Updated · BBC.com · May 11
JP Morgan said oil should stay in the low $100s for most of the rest of this year, with Brent briefly jumping 4% to $105.94 on Monday before easing to about $105.
The bank said reopening the Strait of Hormuz as early as next month would not quickly normalize supply, because tanker shortages, refinery restarts and wider logistics would keep the market tight.
The renewed price pressure followed Trump's rejection of Iran's latest peace response as "totally unacceptable," while Tehran demanded an end to the conflict and guarantees against further US-Israeli attacks.
About a fifth of global oil and gas shipments normally pass through Hormuz, which has been effectively shut since the war began on Feb. 28, helping push OPEC April output down 830,000 barrels a day.
Saudi Aramco's CEO said the shock could last into 2027 and cited an unprecedented supply loss of about 1 billion barrels, underscoring why energy majors have reported sharply higher profits.
Beyond reopening the Strait of Hormuz, what will it take to truly repair the shattered global oil supply chain?
This crisis highlights oil's volatility. Can the accelerated push for renewables actually prevent the next global energy shock?
With energy giants reporting record profits, will governments intervene to shield consumers from skyrocketing energy bills?
2026 Strait of Hormuz Closure: Unprecedented 13 Million Barrel/Day Oil Loss Drives Inflation and Global Economic Risk
Overview
The month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest oil market disruption in history, causing severe constraints on global energy supplies and leading to dramatic re-evaluations of oil price forecasts. As vessels were forced to reroute or remain idle, energy and commodity supply chains faced months of delays, even under the best scenarios. This unprecedented shock resulted in widespread demand destruction and posed significant challenges to global stability. The eventual resumption of flows through the Strait became the most critical factor in easing pressure on energy supplies, prices, and the broader global economy.