EIA Lifts Middle East Oil Loss Forecast to 10.8 Million BPD as Hormuz Closure Drags On
Updated
Updated · Reuters · May 12
EIA Lifts Middle East Oil Loss Forecast to 10.8 Million BPD as Hormuz Closure Drags On
4 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 12
10.8 million bpd is now the EIA’s projected peak Middle East supply loss for May, up from its earlier 9.1 million bpd estimate, after extending its assumption for an effective Strait of Hormuz closure through end-May.
2.6 million bpd of global inventory draws are now expected this year, versus about 300,000 bpd previously, with Brent seen averaging $106 a barrel in May and June before easing to $89 in the fourth quarter.
200,000 bpd is the EIA’s new 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, cut from 600,000 bpd, as higher prices curb consumption and help rebalance the market.
$3.88 a gallon is the agency’s new U.S. gasoline price forecast for this year, 18 cents above April’s outlook, underscoring the war’s widening economic and political pressure if disruptions persist.
As Middle East oil exports collapse, which nations are poised to become the new energy superpowers?
With fertilizer shipments blocked, is the global oil war about to trigger a worldwide food crisis?
How will the world's worst energy crisis permanently reshape global trade routes and alliances?
2026 Energy Shock: How the Strait of Hormuz Conflict Redefined Global Markets and Accelerated the Energy Transition
Overview
In early 2026, joint U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered Hezbollah to launch rockets into northern Israel, leading to swift Israeli military action in southern Lebanon. This escalation rapidly intensified the Middle East conflict, causing U.S. President Donald Trump to abruptly reverse 'Operation Freedom,' which further destabilized the Gulf region. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict made a lasting settlement impossible, casting uncertainty over regional stability and global energy markets. As a result, oil supplies collapsed, prices surged, and governments worldwide scrambled to respond, highlighting the vulnerability of global energy systems to geopolitical shocks.