Standard Bank's Barrow Sees 10-Year Treasury Yield Hitting 5% in 2026

1 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 12

5% on the 10-year Treasury is now Steven Barrow’s call for this year, a far more aggressive view than the market’s debate over whether the 30-year can stay above that level.
Persistent inflation underpins the forecast, with the Standard Bank strategist arguing price pressures will keep pushing benchmark US borrowing costs higher.
More than 80 basis points separate Barrow’s target from Bloomberg’s average year-end strategist estimate, making the bet notably more hawkish than consensus.
2007 was the last time the 10-year yield decisively traded above 5%, aside from a brief burst of volatility in October 2023, underscoring how unusual that call would be.

With long-term bonds already past 5%, is the Federal Reserve losing its grip on inflation?

Is the era of low inflation and cheap money officially over for the US economy?