2027 Social Security COLA Forecasts Jump to 3.9%-4.2% as Gas Tops $4.50

1 articles · Updated · The 401(k) Specialist · May 12

TSCL lifted its 2027 Social Security COLA estimate to 3.9%, while analyst Mary Johnson projected 4.2%, up sharply from this year’s 2.8% adjustment and from Johnson’s prewar 1.2% estimate.
A 3.9% annual rise in CPI-W—the index used to set COLA—drove the jump, with energy prices up 3.8% in April after a 10.9% March surge and average gasoline prices above $4.50 a gallon.
At TSCL’s 3.9% estimate, the average retired worker’s monthly benefit would rise by $81.17 to $2,162.33, though advocates say higher Medicare, housing, utility and grocery costs are still outpacing gains.
The broader inflation backdrop is worsening: the all-items CPI rose 3.8% over 12 months, the highest in nearly three years, while heating oil, tomatoes and coffee posted especially steep increases.
The official 2027 COLA is still five months away and will be based on July-through-September inflation data, with the next forecast update due June 10.

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