China Studies 7-Week Iran War for Taiwan Lessons as U.S. Depletes Nearly Half Its Munitions
Updated
Updated · Los Angeles Times · May 12
China Studies 7-Week Iran War for Taiwan Lessons as U.S. Depletes Nearly Half Its Munitions
11 articles · Updated · Los Angeles Times · May 12
Beijing sees the 7-week Iran war as evidence that U.S. battlefield superiority can still fail to deliver political results, a lesson Chinese officials are applying to Taiwan planning.
Nearly half of U.S. high-end munitions stockpiles were depleted in the campaign, and Washington shifted major assets from Asia—including the USS Abraham Lincoln, Pacific missiles and a Marine unit from Okinawa—to the Middle East.
China has used the conflict to bolster its claim to be a stabilizing power, helping pressure Tehran into last month's ceasefire while opposing the war and insisting the Strait of Hormuz stay open.
That balancing act also protects Chinese interests: about 50% of its crude imports pass through Hormuz, even as Beijing's restraint toward Iran unsettled some partners.
For Taiwan, Chinese analysts see both warning and opportunity: asymmetric tactics have prolonged the Hormuz fight, and they question whether even a modern PLA could convert military pressure into a durable political outcome.
Is China's focus on advanced AI drones a strategic blunder against the lessons of cheap, asymmetric warfare?
Can the US rebuild its drone industry fast enough to counter China's overwhelming production in a Taiwan conflict?
Will the next global conflict be won by controlling supply chains for rare earths and semiconductors?
How China Is Learning from the US-Iran Conflict: Strategic and Military Lessons for a Taiwan Contingency
Overview
China is closely watching the US-Iran conflict, treating it as a 'live laboratory' to learn strategic lessons for a possible future scenario involving Taiwan. Guided by President Xi Jinping’s philosophy that war can deter invasion and win respect, Chinese strategists are studying how conflicts unfold, how deterrence works, and what leads to strategic success. They focus on US military actions, Iran’s asymmetric responses, and the impact of sanctions, but recognize that not all lessons apply directly to Taiwan—especially since a Taiwan conflict would likely involve many more international allies, making it a much more complex challenge.