Fed Hike Odds Jump to 27% by 2028 as April CPI Hits 3.8%
Updated
Updated · 24/7 Wall St. · May 12
Fed Hike Odds Jump to 27% by 2028 as April CPI Hits 3.8%
5 articles · Updated · 24/7 Wall St. · May 12
Kalshi markets now price a 27% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike before 2028, up from 18.2% a month ago, after April inflation data undercut expectations for rate cuts.
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% in April after 0.9% in March, pushing annual CPI to 3.8%—the highest since May 2023—and signaling inflation is reaccelerating rather than cooling.
Energy prices climbed 3.8% in April and accounted for about 40% of the monthly CPI increase, with gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and electricity all moving higher.
Iran-related supply and shipping risks have kept crude prices elevated, reinforcing fears that the Fed faces a supply-driven inflation shock that higher rates may only partly restrain.
That repricing extends a broader market shift already visible in Treasuries, where investors have moved away from betting on easier policy and toward tighter financial conditions.
With inflation surging, can the new Fed Chair deliver promised rate cuts based on his controversial AI-disinflation theory?
As global conflicts drive inflation, are the Fed's traditional policy tools now obsolete for controlling prices?