SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage to Hit Moon on Aug. 5, 2026 at 7 Times Sound Speed

4 articles · Updated · ScienceAlert · May 11

Bill Gray projects the spent Falcon 9 upper stage 2025-010D will strike the Moon at about 06:44 UTC on Aug. 5, 2026, near Einstein crater on the boundary of the near and far sides.
A 26-day Earth orbit now carries the stage between roughly 220,000 kilometers and 510,000 kilometers from Earth, and Gray said it and the Moon will reach their orbital intersection at the same time.
The hardware came from a January 2025 Falcon 9 launch carrying the Blue Ghost Mission 1 and Hakuto-R Mission 2 lunar landers; unlike many second stages, it did not fall back to Earth or escape into solar orbit.
The impact is expected to carve a fresh crater, though the flash likely will not be visible from Earth; NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter may later image the site.
No people or structures are at risk, but the case underscores growing concern over space-junk disposal as the U.S. targets a crewed Artemis IV lunar mission in 2028 and China aims for one around 2030.

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