Russia Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.4% as Budget Oil Price Stays at $59

4 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 11

Russia lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.4% from 1.3%, with 2027 also cut to 1.4% from 2.8%, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.
Novak framed the slowdown as a cyclical correction after strong 2023-24 growth, while saying the economy is still operating under unprecedented sanctions pressure.
Russia’s $3 trillion economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter—its first quarterly decline since early 2023—after tax hikes and discounts on Russian oil weighed on activity.
The Economy Ministry still kept the 2026 budget oil price at $59 a barrel and sees $50 for the following three years, despite Middle East-driven price spikes that some analysts expected Russia to benefit from.
The downgrade adds pressure on the government after Vladimir Putin last year demanded growth resume in 2026 and last month rebuked officials over the slowdown.

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