Research Finds Race Predicts Southern Voting Better Than Party After 6-3 Louisiana Redistricting Ruling
Updated
Updated · The Conversation · May 11
Research Finds Race Predicts Southern Voting Better Than Party After 6-3 Louisiana Redistricting Ruling
5 articles · Updated · The Conversation · May 11
A new political-science study argues the Supreme Court’s 6-3 Louisiana ruling may not remove race from redistricting, because race predicts Southern voting more reliably than party identification.
South Carolina precinct data from 2010-2020 showed prior partisan results alone misfire: about a quarter of voters in the next election did not behave as party-based maps would predict, and those patterns shifted across cycles.
The researchers say that gives mapmakers a data-driven incentive to use racial composition when pursuing partisan advantage, even after the court said legislators must ignore race to avoid racial-gerrymandering liability.
That dynamic could reshape Southern maps before the 2026 midterms, threaten some Black Democratic incumbents, and trigger fresh lawsuits if challengers can show race was the predominant factor in drawing districts.
How can states draw race-blind maps when race is the strongest predictor of how people will vote?
Supreme Court’s 6-3 Ruling in Louisiana v. Callais Slashes Voting Rights Act Protections, Threatens Minority Representation and Shifts 2026 Election Odds
Overview
The Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026, immediately reshaped the national political landscape by significantly impacting the Democratic Party’s chances of gaining control of the House of Representatives. This landmark ruling led to a sharp drop in prediction market odds for Democrats, falling from 85.3% to 75% within two weeks. The 10.3 percentage point decline highlights the substantial and immediate political consequences of the decision, signaling a more challenging path for Democrats in the upcoming November elections and underscoring the ruling’s far-reaching effects on electoral prospects.