Goldman Sachs Cuts US Recession Odds to 25% as April Jobs Beat and Oil Seen at $90
Updated
Updated · Business Insider · May 11
Goldman Sachs Cuts US Recession Odds to 25% as April Jobs Beat and Oil Seen at $90
4 articles · Updated · Business Insider · May 11
Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 30%, saying economic activity has held up and financial conditions have eased back below pre-war levels.
April payrolls rose 115,000 versus expectations for 65,000, unemployment held at 4.3%, and private domestic sales grew 2.5% despite weaker headline first-quarter GDP.
The bank said the Iran war and the 10-week Strait of Hormuz closure have had only a modest US impact, with high domestic oil reserves and expectations of a policy response limiting price spikes.
Under Goldman’s baseline, a gradual Strait reopening starts soon and finishes in late June, leaving Brent stable near term and edging down to $90 a barrel by year-end.
That view remains less pessimistic than some rivals: Mark Zandi puts recession odds at 40% and Gary Schilling expects a recession by the end of 2026.
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