Morgan Stanley Warns Brent Could Hit $150 by Summer as Hormuz Closure Risk Persists
Updated
Updated · MarketWatch · May 11
Morgan Stanley Warns Brent Could Hit $150 by Summer as Hormuz Closure Risk Persists
3 articles · Updated · MarketWatch · May 11
$150 Brent is Morgan Stanley’s bullish summer scenario if the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained into late June or July and U.S. and Chinese buffers run low.
Morgan Stanley said oil has avoided a bigger spike because seaborne exports, China’s reduced import needs and expectations of a reopening have cushioned the market so far.
$103.77 Brent and $97.56 WTI both rose Monday after last week’s 6.4% drop, as hopes for a resolution faded with Washington and Tehran still far apart.
Trump called Iran’s latest response “totally unacceptable,” while Tehran sought an end to hostilities and gradual Hormuz reopening, underscoring why the bank called it a race against time.
$100 Brent in the third quarter is Morgan Stanley’s base case if reopening comes in June, with prices easing to $90 in the fourth quarter and $80 through 2027.
With oil reserves dwindling, can diplomacy outpace the countdown to economic crisis?
Beyond oil, how will the Hormuz crisis cripple global food and tech supply chains?
Is the battle for the Strait of Hormuz a distraction from the real conflict over Iran's nuclear bomb?
The 2026 Oil Crisis: How the Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggered Global Inflation, Stagflation Risks, and an Energy Policy Revolution
Overview
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026, triggered by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, has caused a major disruption in global energy markets. This critical maritime choke point's shutdown led to a sharp surge in oil prices, which quickly fueled global inflation and created extreme volatility in oil markets. Rising fuel costs have pushed up living expenses for consumers and strained economies worldwide. The uncertainty over the strait’s reopening continues to drive market instability, highlighting how a single geopolitical event can ripple through supply chains, financial systems, and everyday life across the globe.