Traders Cut June Hormuz Reopening Odds to 42% as Gasoline Hits $4.52

6 articles · Updated · The Wall Street Journal · May 11

Polymarket traders now price only a 42% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by the end of June, down from an 88% peak nearly a month ago.
The shift reflects a growing Wall Street view captured by the acronym NACHO—Not a Chance Hormuz Opens—as the Iran war drags on and peace talks remain stalled.
Tehran’s latest counterproposal to end the conflict omitted commitments on its nuclear program, leaving Iran and the U.S. no closer to a deal.
Oil prices have surged with the strait still paralyzed, pushing the U.S. average gasoline price to $4.52 a gallon from just under $3 before the war.
The closure is already inflicting some of Iran’s worst economic hardship in decades, reinforcing expectations that Hormuz may stay shut until damage becomes far more severe.

As the global economy suffers, what unconventional solution could end the Hormuz stalemate without a clear victor?

Is the world’s worst energy crisis unintentionally triggering the permanent end of the fossil fuel era?

With supplies cut off, how close are major nations to implementing wartime rationing on food and energy?