University of Toronto researchers find 42% drop in Canadian visits to US cities
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · May 11
University of Toronto researchers find 42% drop in Canadian visits to US cities
9 articles · Updated · The Guardian · May 11
The cell-phone-based analysis covered April 2024 to March 2026 and found declines in New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Las Vegas, Walt Disney World and Florida winter destinations.
Researchers said the fall exceeded official border data showing a roughly 25% decline, and suggested business travel to centres such as San Francisco, Houston and Grand Rapids also weakened.
They linked the drop to immigration enforcement, border crackdowns, tariffs and economic uncertainty, while noting the data may also capture freight traffic and Canadians leaving temporary US stays.
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As US border agents expand device searches, are Canadians sacrificing vacations to protect their personal data?
Canadian Travel to the US Plummets: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons from the 2024–2026 Decline
Overview
Between April 2024 and March 2026, Canadian travel to the United States dropped sharply, driven by a mix of political tensions, economic changes, and shifting public sentiment. The US imposed tariffs on Canadian goods and moved toward stricter border enforcement, including plans for new visa fees. These actions, along with unwelcoming political rhetoric, made many Canadians reconsider visiting the US. At the same time, economic pressures from the trade war and rising costs further discouraged travel. Together, these factors led to a significant and unprecedented decline in cross-border movement, reshaping travel patterns and economic ties.