Democrats lead 2028 presidential election prediction markets
Updated
Updated · OregonLive · May 9
Democrats lead 2028 presidential election prediction markets
8 articles · Updated · OregonLive · May 9
Kalshi and Polymarket put Democrats on 61% and Republicans on 39%, up from 53%-47% in January; more than $1.7m has been wagered on Polymarket.
The shift is linked to the economy and the Iran war, with the 2026 midterms and Republicans' slim congressional majorities seen as potential influences on the race.
No major candidates have declared, but JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead Republican nomination betting, while Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris top Democratic markets.
How will 2028 hopefuls address both the global energy crisis and rising costs for families?
How will new regulations against insider trading affect the accuracy of election prediction markets?
As the Iran conflict disrupts global trade, what is the long-term risk of a worldwide recession?