Tuomas Malinen predicts Iran war will trigger global depression
Updated
Updated · Tehran Times · May 8
Tuomas Malinen predicts Iran war will trigger global depression
5 articles · Updated · Tehran Times · May 8
In an interview with Tehran Times, the Finnish economist said Israel-US attacks on Iran and Persian Gulf instability threaten oil, gas, fertiliser and metals supply chains.
He said the shock would begin with energy prices, then hit confidence and finally the financial system, warning reserves could run low by summer, especially in Europe.
Malinen argued heavily indebted Western economies and China are too fragile to absorb another major shock, and said the conflict could accelerate de-dollarisation and regional economic realignment.
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2026 Economic Collapse Risks: Strait of Hormuz Blockade Sparks Energy Shock and Global Recession
Overview
In 2026, the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed, leading to a US blockade of Iranian ports that stalled thousands of ships in the Persian Gulf. This disruption severely constrained global supply chains, especially for oil, gas, and fertilizers, causing production shutdowns and rising prices worldwide. The resulting energy shock pushed oil prices toward $150 per barrel, triggering inflation and weakening global growth forecasts. Financial systems faced stress amid tightening policies, while governments struggled to protect vulnerable populations due to limited fiscal space. Experts warn this crisis could deepen into a severe recession or even a global depression without de-escalation and coordinated international action.