JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said Brent crude has averaged about $100 since the war in Iran began.
They said refinery constraints are shifting market shocks from crude into refined products, especially jet fuel and diesel, as refiners favour aviation demand over other outputs.
If refinery runs stay constrained, the bank said crude could remain near $100 while fuel prices keep climbing, raising pressure on US motorists and broader transport costs.
As refiners prioritize jet fuel profits, is a long-term global gasoline shortage now inevitable?
With global fuel supply chains severed, are strategic reserves enough to avert a worldwide economic crisis?
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Sparks Historic 68% Oil Price Surge and Global Economic Shock in 2026
Overview
In early 2026, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, causing Brent crude prices to surge from $70 to $118 per barrel. This spike led to sharp increases in U.S. gasoline and diesel prices, fueling intense inflation and widespread economic strain. The crisis was worsened by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military responses and diplomatic stalemates, alongside global refinery bottlenecks that created fuel shortages, especially jet fuel. These factors combined to raise transportation and food costs, shifting consumer behavior and pressuring businesses. The prolonged disruption accelerated energy transitions and reshaped global economic and geopolitical dynamics, with lasting impacts expected well beyond 2026.