Updated · Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG · May 7
SAF and RSF split Sudan into rival east and west zones
Updated
Updated · Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG · May 7
SAF and RSF split Sudan into rival east and west zones
6 articles · Updated · Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG · May 7
After 30 months of war, the RSF consolidated the west following El Fasher's fall, while the SAF holds the east and centre from Port Sudan.
The report says illicit gold and foreign backing sustain both sides, with smuggling routes through Egypt, Libya, Chad and South Sudan helping finance arms, drones and fuel.
It warns Sudan's war has become a regional proxy conflict threatening Red Sea and Horn stability, while Quad diplomacy is weakened by divisions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
As smuggled gold fuels endless war, can targeting financial hubs like Dubai break the violence when sanctions on warlords fail?
With former allies UAE and Saudi Arabia now backing opposing sides, is Sudan the flashpoint for a new Middle Eastern cold war?
The US sanctioned one side's allies for terrorism but not the other for genocide. Does this uneven justice doom any chance for peace?
Sudan’s Divided War: Military Stalemate, 12 Million Displaced, and a Fractured State in 2025-2026
Overview
Since the outbreak of civil war in April 2023, Sudan has been divided into an east-west territorial split, with the Sudanese Armed Forces controlling Khartoum and the east, and the Rapid Support Forces dominating Darfur and the west. Key battles like the SAF's recapture of Khartoum and the RSF's capture of El Fasher, marked by brutal atrocities, have entrenched this stalemate. Both sides fund their war efforts through control of resources—gold mining for the RSF and Red Sea ports for the SAF—while external backers deepen the conflict. Failed international mediation and dual governance have worsened a humanitarian crisis, displacing millions and blocking vital aid, leaving Sudan fractured and its future uncertain.