Generic weight-loss market size remains unknown after semaglutide patent expiry
Updated
Updated · The Wall Street Journal · May 8
Generic weight-loss market size remains unknown after semaglutide patent expiry
12 articles · Updated · The Wall Street Journal · May 8
Sandoz plans semaglutide launches in Canada and Brazil this year after Canada approved generics from Dr Reddy's and Apotex and India authorised copies earlier in 2026.
Chief executive Richard Saynor called those launches an experiment on pricing, demand, patient segments and government responses, and said Sandoz has excluded any semaglutide launch from its 2026 guidance.
Analysts see Sandoz generic semaglutide sales rising from $31.7 million this year to $742.6 million in 2035, while Europe and the US remain protected until the 2030s.
As generic weight-loss injections arrive, will new branded oral pills steal the market?
With weight-loss drugs changing consumer spending, which industries will boom and which will bust?
With cheap obesity drugs for all, what are the hidden long-term risks for our health and society?
2026 Semaglutide Patent Expiry Sparks 80% Price Drop and Global Access Shift in Obesity and Diabetes Treatment
Overview
The 2026 expiration of semaglutide patents opened major markets like India, China, and Canada to generic competition, triggering dramatic price drops of up to 80%. This surge in affordable generics led to a sevenfold increase in sales, especially in India, expanding access to millions of patients. However, increased use raised safety concerns such as nutritional deficiencies and misuse for cosmetic weight loss, prompting regulators to tighten prescription rules and surveillance. In response, pharma leaders like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are innovating with next-generation oral therapies and muscle-preserving drugs to stay competitive. These shifts are driving a global weight-loss drug market projected to reach $254 billion by 2034, reshaping treatment access and healthcare dynamics worldwide.